Question: How come Connie knew Michael killed Carlo, but she believed Fredo drowned?
MikeH
5th Jan 2019
The Godfather: Part III (1990)
Answer: Fredo lived for a long time after his betrayal of the family, plus when their Mother died Michael hugged Fredo in front of everyone after Connie talked to him about forgiving Fredo. I believe that Connie believed that Michael had forgiven Fredo that day and it was an accident. Anthony was supposed to go with them that day and she is the one that stopped Anthony from going, so I also think that plays into why Connie believes it was an accident as well.
Answer: It's less that she believes it than that she chooses to believe it. In the first film, she's naive about Michael, her father, etc., and so doesn't understand the realpolitik behind Michael's killing of Carlo. By the third film she's become much more inured to the family business (as well as more cynical and world weary), and so accepts the "official" explanation for Fredo's death even though she knows, deep down, it isn't true.
I'd add that by the time of Fredo's death, Connie knew Michael had grown more powerful and was becoming more dehumanized. She feared him enough to know to never confront him directly. After her husband's execution, she knew that any disloyalty to the family would be severely punished. She was also totally dependent on him for money and would not risk losing that.
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Answer: When Connie says the part about "Poor Fredo, drowned, but it was God's will...Michael, I love you. I'll always help you," she is really telling Michael that she knows he had Fredo killed, but she forgives him.