Corrected entry: When Doc and Marty are in the blacksmith shop, Doc reads the picture tombstone: Shot in the BACK for a matter of $80. Even Buford emphasises this in the previous scene; "one day you gonna get a bullet in your back". However, in the festival scene when Buford is about to shoot Doc, Doc is facing FORWARD. If Marty had not been there to stop the bullet with the frisbee, Doc would have been shot in the chest, not the back. (00:36:00 - 00:58:45)
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Correction: You're not thinking fourth dimensionally. If Marty had not gone back in time, he and Doc wouldn't have saved Clara. If Clara hadn't been at the dance, Doc may well have not been at the dance. Biff would then have shot him somewhere else and in the back. Marty being there messes up the whole time continuum. Doc even mentions something along the lines of Buford being early during that scene.
Zwn Annwn
In the original timeline both Doc and Clara were at the dance. Without Marty being there Doc would have been shot in the back. When Tannen says "told you to watch your back smithy," that's what prompted Doc to reply that he felt early since he knew he wouldn't be dead until the 7th. Basically in the original timeline, Tannen shot Doc in the back at the dance and he bled out until finally dying on Monday the 7th.